CFTC staff flag mention markets as manipulable

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight (DMO) issued an advisory on 22 September 2026 on “mention markets”. These are event contracts that settle on whether a person will say certain words, attend or appear at an event, or interact with someone else. The advisory warns that such contracts carry a heightened risk of manipulation.

What the advisory says

The advisory is CFTC Staff Letter No. 26-27. It is addressed to designated contract markets (DCMs), the CFTC-regulated exchanges that list event contracts. Its examples include contracts on whether someone will use a phrase during a speech or on an earnings call.

The core position is a presumption, not a prohibition. DMO staff “may view Mention Markets as presumptively readily susceptible to manipulation” and expect a heightened showing before such contracts are listed. The letter names two risks:

The subject controls the outcome. The person being bet on can decide how the contract settles.
Insiders may know in advance. People with access to scripts, prepared remarks or guest lists hold material nonpublic information.

The letter says a well-designed contract, combined with exchange trading rules, surveillance and controls, may rebut the presumption “in limited circumstances”. It lists four factors every Part 40 filing should address:

independent obligations that constrain the person in question
exposure to outside pressure on that person
independent verification and public scrutiny of the event
the strength of the exchange’s own surveillance

The press release ties this to Core Principle 3: exchanges may list only contracts that are not readily susceptible to manipulation.

The letter is explicit about its limits. It “does not create new obligations” and represents DMO staff views, not the Commission’s.

Who is affected

Kalshi currently runs a mentions category. Finance Magnates reported that a Kalshi spokesperson said the company had “addressed this guidance based on a prior discussion with the CFTC”. We have not seen a statement on Kalshi’s own channels.

Separate update: crypto FAQs

On 24 September, three CFTC divisions updated their crypto FAQs with two changes:

Tokenized investments: futures brokers and clearing houses may invest customer funds in tokenized forms of already permitted investments, subject to conditions.
Blockchain records: required records can be kept on a blockchain without offchain copies.

These are staff views and do not change platform access.

What changes in our data

Nothing. The advisory governs which contracts exchanges may list, not who can use them, so our Kalshi and Polymarket rows are unchanged. We will log a change if an exchange withdraws a contract category in response.